Socio-Economic and Political Drivers of the Future of Aviation

Contact

List of researchers

Motivation

Comparatively speaking, the aviation industry is one of the markets with the longest product lifecycles. During these long periods, the relevant economic, social and political environment will change considerably. Such change greatly affects the planning reliability of the development and sale of a product with a long lifecycle. Climate change, the scarcity of resources, further growth in traffic and increasing capacity bottlenecks all present great challenges for the aviation industry, especially against the backdrop of the ageing western and emerging commercial eastern societies, where the globalisation of political and religious conflicts is ever intensifying.

Task

Research and synthesising work on the above subjects is usually interdisciplinary and requires a solid knowledge of the relevant social science disciplines for translation into concrete industrial issues. In this context, Bauhaus Luftfahrt identifies and analyses long-term trends in order to detect the associated opportunities and risks at an early stage and to derive precise alternatives for action for the aviation industry.

Approach

The assessment of international databases and studies serves as a basis for a future-oriented examination of economic, social and political framework conditions for air and ground traffic. Methods for complexity management and future research (e.g. scenario technique, trend and uncertainty and influence analyses, etc.) assist in the identification and analysis of long-term drivers. This work is primarily synthesising and mainly serves to raise awareness of problems in the industry and among the public, while at the same time providing important specifications for sustainable transport solutions. It also helps to consolidate the position of Bauhaus Luftfahrt as a centre of expertise for scenario analyses and assessment.