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The future of door-to-door air travel

In the light of the current COVID-19 crisis, contactless and seamless door-to-door air travel gains a new momentum for both passengers and the aviation industry. But how could door-to-door (D2D) air travel look like in 2035? What are driving trends for the European market? Which scenarios are possible? Bauhaus Luftfahrt just published a Delphi study to answer some of these questions. The research project was carried out in collaboration with the WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management in Vallendar. In total, 18 semi-structured expert interviews are conducted and 38 panelists in a two-round Delphi surveyed. Among others, the panel comprises experts from academia, airports, and airlines, but also representatives from public transport providers and the automotive industry. Based on the results from an additional cluster analysis, the study elaborates on three possible future scenarios for 2035: (1) personalised D2D travel, (2) integrated D2D travel, and (3) the game changer. Among all scenarios, experts predict digitalisation and personalisation to become significant key drivers. Future passengers might want to spend their travel time in a more value-adding way, and differentiated passenger needs can open up novel business opportunities that still need to be uncovered by the industry. In summary, mobility companies along the D2D air travel chain are advised by the authors to adopt measures aimed at increasing personalisation and digitalisation and to establish partnerships with other mobility providers and third parties, such as tech companies.

The paper is available for downloading under this link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520309227.

1Parts of this study were conducted within the CAMERA project (H2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 769606).

D2D Delphi Study

Schematic.
August 4th, 2020