Whereas in previous years the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on aviation and travel almost completely dominated the trend discussions, starting from 2022 but especially in 2023, this discussion has become much more varied. It is worth noting that some technological developments identified in 2022 are gradually gaining momentum (i.e. sustainable aviation fuels, green hydrogen, metaverse), but also some emerging developments are on the horizon (i.e. direct air carbon capture, quantum computing, digital travel credential) in 2023.

All these are occurring in a more complex, diverse and dynamic ecosystem. The political arena, for instance, is dominated by a change in the power dynamic between countries that has led to increasing conflicts in politically and militarily unstable regions. This pushed many leading economic blocks and countries to take into consideration a future economic and energetic landscape dominated by regionalism and independence. The further development of a circular economy, the renaissance of ETFs and a new world energetic scenario could be seen as a consequence of that. Diversification, de-risking and more rational, efficient and sustainable use of resources are some of the directives leading the way. Certainly, all these phenomena have a spillover effect on the social domain, with the appearance of new forms of tourism that have materialised in new emerging travel and tourism segments (i.e. regenerative, wellness, eco-luxury, multigenerational, fluid identity and social media tourism). These segments are influenced not only by trends originating in the political (i.e. slowbalisation), economic (i.e. circular economy) or environmental (i.e. climate change mitigation) domains but also the social one.

An overview of selected trends from the Bauhaus Luftfahrt database in 2023

Combined assessment of the trend maturity by tools and experts

The evaluation by experts and the trend monitoring assessment tool DIPAT help to understand trends early on. The maturity level indicates if a trend is already observable today, emerging by showing first indications, or a weak signal to indicate far ahead in the future.

Bauhaus Luftfahrt Trend Monitor: a structured, three-step approach starting with trend scanning and identification.